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Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism driving mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, yet it is unknown how the localized melt enhancement from subglacial discharge will affect future Antarctic glacial retreat. We develop a parameterization of ice shelf basal melt that accounts for both ocean and subglacial discharge forcing and apply it in future projections of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica, through 2300. In forward simulations, subglacial discharge accelerates the onset of retreat of these systems into the deepest continental trench on Earth by 25 years. During this retreat, Denman Glacier alone contributes 0.33 millimeters per year to global sea level rise, comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results stress the importance of resolving complex interactions between the ice, ocean, and subglacial environments in future Antarctic Ice Sheet projections. 

Abstract. The discovery of Antarctica's deepest subglacial troughbeneath the Denman Glacier, combined with high rates of basal melt at thegrounding line, has caused significant concern over its vulnerability toretreat. Recent attention has therefore been focusing on understanding thecontrols driving Denman Glacier's dynamic evolution. Here we consider theShackleton system, comprised of the Shackleton Ice Shelf, Denman Glacier,and the adjacent Scott, Northcliff, Roscoe and Apfel glaciers, about whichalmost nothing is known. We widen the context of previously observed dynamicchanges in the Denman Glacier to the wider region of the Shackleton system,with a multi-decadal time frame and an improved biannual temporal frequencyof observations in the last 7 years (2015–2022). We integrate newsatellite observations of ice structure and airborne radar data with changesin ice front position and ice flow velocities to investigate changes in thesystem. Over the 60-year period of observation we find significant riftpropagation on the Shackleton Ice Shelf and Scott Glacier and notablestructural changes in the floating shear margins between the ice shelf andthe outlet glaciers, as well as features indicative of ice with elevatedsalt concentration and brine infiltration in regions of the system. Over theperiod 2017–2022 we observe a significant increase in ice flow speed (up to50 %) on the floating part of Scott Glacier, coincident with small-scalecalving and rift propagation close to the ice front. We do not observe anyseasonal variation or significant change in ice flow speed across the restof the Shackleton system. Given the potential vulnerability of the system toaccelerating retreat into the overdeepened, potentially sediment-filledbedrock trough, an improved understanding of the glaciological,oceanographic and geological conditions in the Shackleton system arerequired to improve the certainty of numerical model predictions, and weidentify a number of priorities for future research. With access to theseremote coastal regions a major challenge, coordinated internationallycollaborative efforts are required to quantify how much the Shackletonregion is likely to contribute to sea level rise in the coming centuries. 

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica.